Engel & Voelkers

Low Mortgage Rates: Scaring me with graphs

Lately, I have seen horrifying short-term graphs that show the rise in interest rates this year, and as much as I tell myself its all relative, I get fearful. So this morning, when a mortgage banker displayed the Chart Freddy Mac puts out with the rolling 5-year and 30-year fixed rate averages, I cringed, and then I pondered, and then I laughed, and laughed, and laughed….

When you look at the thirty year graph below, with its slightly bumpy, but steady decline since 1982, you realize that the latest uptick, is just the bump at the tail of that slope. Sure, it looks horrifying when you magnify it, as in the second chart, but it’s still at historical lows for those of us who matured after the mid ’70’s.

I thought back to when I was a little boy, and those dubbed sci-fi movies terrified me with giant magnified ants and scorpions, but that was about the time our nation enjoyed 3% mortgage rates too. Well, those rates have been long gone for decades, and like so many, I am older, wiser and those tricks of magnification don’t scare me any more, unless they fool me with graphs! Boy, do I feel silly.

Of course, looking at the 30-year chart, I realized I also managed to time a move or relocation to coincide with the spikes on that downward slope: 1985, ’88, ’89, ’90, ’95, 2000…so that is a little sad,

Or then again, just another reason to laugh.

The bottom line: Mortgage rates are still looking pretty good compared to the last 30 years of my life.

Freddie Mac 30 YearFreddieMac5Year


















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About the Author
John Selman is an Associate Broker, with previous experience as a certified Luxury Agent at Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, and The Agency. John consults with clients, handling the purchase and sales of their homes, dives into the hunt for a great property with the goal of achieving positive equity at close whenever possible, enthusiastically showcases a home for sale to bring out its best features, and truly loves what he gets to do every day. John moved to Engel & Voelkers to take advantage of their global reach in home and select lifestyle offerings, the experience and professionalism of their management and advisors, and E&V’s superlative marketing and support tools. Having grown up around the world, he arrived in the Valley from Canada, 35 years ago, renovated central Phoenix properties during college, and is intimate with the best neighborhoods historically, and those now on the rise. John earned his MBA in marketing from Arizona State University, with an undergraduate focus on biology, finance and computer science, and continued to pursue advanced coursework as an executive. As an e-marketing and sales executive, with stints with IBM and start-ups in San Francisco, Dallas, New Orleans, Las Vegas, Atlanta, New York, La Jolla and LA, his regular relocation home searches provided valuable experiences, both good and bad, and led to his real estate career. John has practiced and taught the Consulting Sales process to the best sales people in business. A former #1 sales executive at IBM, and an instructor of executive education for IBM, he teaches, practices, and practically breathes the Consulting Sales Process. John honed his luxury-specific marketing skills, re-positioning and invigorating his gourmet food and wine shop in downtown Malibu, initially as a side business. As a pioneer in email marketing and blogs, he delivered wine advice and sold rare wine across the country to America’s wealthiest collector's and some of the biggest names in entertainment and business. Running his fine wine boutique, Malibu Village Wines, he consulted with auction houses, and worked with architects, cabinetmakers, contractors, and some of America’s best Realtors designing wine cellars for luxurious estates, and realized that Real Estate was what he wanted to concentrate on in his future. Expanding with a bar and restaurant, he catered to the needs of some of the world's wealthiest business people and celebrities. Having created a shop that was a social hub for the wine community, built a wine clientele around the world, and co-founded the Wine Classic for ChildHelp charity, John decided it was time to move on from technology, food and wine, and focus on real estate- his other lifestyle passion. He enthusiastically enjoys, and irreverently writes about homes, food and wine. He is passionate about all three, loves architecture, grapes, cooking, good renovation, old cars and motorcycles, his family, his Bulldog “Rugby”, and most (but not always all) of his friends. In his rare free time, he coaches paddling sports on Tempe Town Lake, strums a guitar while singing offkey, visits his favorite old ski haunts and complains of aches and pains, avoids anyone carrying a rugby ball or organizing a "tour", travels up and down the coast seeking out great food & wine, looks for water to paddle SUPs or outriggers, and laughs at his dog.

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