John Selman, Realtor, Broker, Phoenix, Scottsdale, Paradise Valley, Cave Creek, Carefree

Low Mortgage Rates: Scaring me with graphs

Lately, I have seen horrifying short-term graphs that show the rise in interest rates this year, and as much as I tell myself its all relative, I get fearful. So this morning, when a mortgage banker displayed the Chart Freddy Mac puts out with the rolling 5-year and 30-year fixed rate averages, I cringed, and then I pondered, and then I laughed, and laughed, and laughed….

When you look at the thirty year graph below, with its slightly bumpy, but steady decline since 1982, you realize that the latest uptick, is just the bump at the tail of that slope. Sure, it looks horrifying when you magnify it, as in the second chart, but it’s still at historical lows for those of us who matured after the mid ’70’s.

I thought back to when I was a little boy, and those dubbed sci-fi movies terrified me with giant magnified ants and scorpions, but that was about the time our nation enjoyed 3% mortgage rates too. Well, those rates have been long gone for decades, and like so many, I am older, wiser and those tricks of magnification don’t scare me any more, unless they fool me with graphs! Boy, do I feel silly.

Of course, looking at the 30-year chart, I realized I also managed to time a move or relocation to coincide with the spikes on that downward slope: 1985, ’88, ’89, ’90, ’95, 2000…so that is a little sad,

Or then again, just another reason to laugh.

The bottom line: Mortgage rates are still looking pretty good compared to the last 30 years of my life.

Freddie Mac 30 YearFreddieMac5Year


















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About the Author
John Selman is a refugee from the Tech World, and Big Blue, a founder of, director at CU2Americas, former Managing Member of Barrel Wine Bars LLC, Malibu Village Wines LLC, and WineProGroup. He enthusiastically enjoys and irreverently writes, about food, wine, and homes. He is passionate about all three as well as grapes, good renovation, architecture, his family, his very large dogs, and most (but not always all) of his friends. John works with his customers buying and selling normal homes as well as Global Luxury Properties for Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage, and loves what he gets to do every day. In his rare free time, he coaches paddling sports on Tempe Town Lake, occasionally visits his favorite old ski haunts and complains of aches and pains, avoids anyone carrying a rugby ball, travels up and down the coast seeking out great food & wine, looks for water to paddle SUP or outriggers, and laughs at his dogs.

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